Al-Kazemi’s assassination attempt… complicates the already suffocated Iraqi political scene?

A major security escalation witnessed in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, after the attempt to assassinate Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi with 3 marches at dawn today, Sunday, which targeted his house in the Green Zone, in an attempt considered the first of its kind since 2003. This would add more complexity to the congested political scene after the legislative elections conducted on the tenth of October last.

The Security Media Cell – through its official website – confirmed that Al-Kazemi had been subjected to an assassination attempt, and stated in its statement, “A failed assassination attempt against the Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces … and that the President’s country was not harmed and he is in good health.”

The cell’s statement clarified that the Iraqi security forces are taking the necessary measures to investigate this failed attempt, without indicating who might be behind the attack and whether it resulted in any casualties among the security forces entrusted with protecting Al-Kazemi.

security escalation

Since last October 12, and after the announcement of the preliminary results of the elections, Iraq has been in a state of security and political escalation resulting from the loss of political blocs of their parliamentary seats in return for the Sadrist movement topping the political scene after achieving a remarkable victory with 73 parliamentary seats out of 329, the total number of seats in the House of Representatives Iraq, according to the preliminary results of the elections.

As a result, many political parties and blocs rejected the election results, accusing the IHEC and the Iraqi government of rigging them, which led these blocs to sit-in and demonstrate in front of the Green Zone, which resulted in the death and dozens of injuries last Friday night, after the situation developed into clashes between security forces and demonstrators.

Abu Ragheef considered that the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi might be a good occasion to overcome differences and get out of the country’s crisis (Al-Jazeera Net)

Dangerous indications

In turn, security and strategic expert Fadel Abu Ragheef believes that targeting Al-Kazemi constitutes a great sensitivity, especially since the attempt to assassinate him comes in a difficult circumstance that was produced by the election results, pointing out that the incident may be a good occasion to deepen understandings and overcome differences between the political blocs to get out of the current crisis.

And about its consequences, Abu Ragheef continues – in his talk to Al Jazeera Net – that this incident will not lead to escalatory repercussions, noting that all parties resentful of the government will remain silent until what he described as “the cloud” and the results of the investigations are revealed, according to him.

Hosariah - Professor of Political Science at Cihan University - Muhannad Al-JanabiAl-Janabi: The attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi came as a result of the political tension in the country (Al-Jazeera Net)

As for political science professor at Cihan University in Erbil, Muhannad al-Janabi, believes that the coordination framework’s objection to the election results does not stop at the electoral results, but rather goes beyond that to the upcoming government program that the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, praised.

Al-Janabi continued – in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net – that what happened from the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi was a result of the political tension in the country, and that some of the losing blocs in the elections lost much of the power they were receiving from the Iranian regional sponsor, and therefore – in order to preserve their political gains – they It tended to escalate as much as possible, which could lead to an all-out confrontation in the country.

Exclusive sent by him - political analyst - Manaf Al-MoussawiAl-Moussawi believes that the assassination attempt came to create chaos to push for a political settlement (Al-Jazeera Net)

Operation semantics

Regarding the implications of the attempt to target Al-Kazemi, political researcher Manaf Al-Moussawi (close to the Sadrist movement) believes that the recent elections produced new electoral weights, and that the implications of the assassination attempt are summed up in two things. The first is that it came to create chaos to push for a political settlement that would satisfy the losing forces in the elections.

The second indication – Al-Moussawi adds – is that the project presented by Muqtada al-Sadr, which includes the formation of a political majority government and the confinement of arms to the hands of the state, provoked the armed forces, which led them to use weapons in a precedent that is the first of its kind.

Regarding the possibility of a political settlement after the assassination attempt, al-Moussawi said that the Sadrist movement was clear in its intention to form a majority government, and in the event that it was unable to do so, it would resort to the opposition without being a partner in a consensus government, according to al-Moussawi.

Photo sent by him - political researcher - Ziad ArarAl-Arar believes that the assassination attempt is a qualitative change in the rules of engagement between the opposing parties in Iraq (Al-Jazeera Net)

Escalation warning

The attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi with booby-trapped drones indicates a qualitative change in the rules of engagement between the conflicting parties in Iraq, according to political researcher Ziad Al-Arar, who explained that it indicates intentions for a major security escalation that could lead Iraq to unimaginable consequences.

Al-Arar added – in his testimony to Al-Jazeera Net – that after the assassination attempt, many armed and unarmed parties opposed to Al-Kazemi denounced the attempt, which indicates the presence of armed parties inside Iraq that no longer adhere to the rules of engagement set by the same factions and which are supervised by Iran within the so-called “axis”. Resistance”.

As for the impact of this on the formation of the next government, Al-Arar asserts that it will not affect the process of announcing the final results of the elections, but it will certainly cast a shadow over the mechanism of forming the next government, which he described as “a difficult labor.”

On the possibility of the country heading towards a security escalation in the coming hours, Al-Arar rules out this, saying, “I expect that there will be a clear position from the faction leaders and the leaders of the scene who own weapons, and that Iran will intervene to calm the situation, because Iraq’s going into chaos will negatively affect the regional environment of Iraq and Iran.” directly.”

Doubting the incident

Various countries of the world condemned the assassination attempt, and the Iranian Foreign Ministry condemned the targeting of Al-Kazemi and confirmed its position in supporting security and stability in Iraq, and considered this targeting an attempt to create sedition that serves the interests of those who struck Iraq’s security 18 years ago, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

For his part, the Secretary-General of Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, Qais al-Khazali, called for a specialized and reliable technical committee to ascertain the cause and merits of the attack, especially since it did not cause casualties, according to the statement he published on his official Twitter account.

He added, “If it was not an accidental explosion or the like, and it was a real targeting, we condemn this act frankly, and the perpetrators of this operation must be sought and punished, because it is definitely an attempt to mix the papers, because it came one day after the clear crime of killing protesters, assaulting them and burning their tents.” .

Khazali indicated that he had warned a few days ago of the intention of parties linked to intelligence agencies to bomb the Green Zone and to blame the resistance factions, he said.

Published on the Al-Jazeera website - political researcher - Haider Al-BarzanjiAl-Barzanji: The attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi is a well-defined and poorly directed play (Al-Jazeera Net)

a play

In turn, the political analyst Haider Al-Barzanji described the attempt to assassinate Al-Kazemi as a “play” with clear features and bad output, explaining that it is not possible to target the Prime Minister’s house only one day after targeting the demonstrators who reject the election results so that he can blame the targets of the demonstrations last Friday.

Al-Barzanji – who is close to the coordination framework rejecting the election results – continues that if the demonstrators had the intention to respond to the attack on them, the response could have been immediate and direct, without entering into what he described as “naive” targeting Al-Kazemi.

Al-Barzanji accused foreign parties and a third party of trying to assassinate Al-Kazemi in order to exclude sympathy with the demonstrators, noting that the Prime Minister’s movements and practices after the assassination attempt indicate what he described as “the lie of the case,” as he put it.

Al-Barzanji considered what happened as an “attempt to overthrow the forces rejecting the elections” in order to give a green light to the international community and the United States to intervene on the pretext that the civil peace of Iraq is under threat.

The Iraqi Joint Operations Command declined to respond to Al-Jazeera Net correspondent’s questions regarding the nature of the incident of the assassination attempt on Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi and whether it caused injuries among members of the security staff accompanying Al-Kazemi, only indicating that the investigations are still ongoing, and that the results will be announced upon completion.

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