Sunday, November 28

National Interest: Any war between Israel and Iran would be bloody and costly

Attention has shifted from fears of a war in the Middle East between Iran and Israel due to the tension between the two countries, to other crises in the region.

Despite this, Israel’s concern about the growing Iranian influence has not subsided, and the possibility of war still exists in that security environment that cannot be predicted as to its outcome. What are the consequences of war between Israel and Iran if it breaks out?

With this question, Robert Farley, a professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Trade at the University of Kentucky, USA, began An article by him on the National Interest website. (National Interest) The American explores the consequences of the tension between Iran and Israel, reviews the balance of power between the two countries and the heavy price that they and the region as a whole will pay as a result of the war.

Farley believes – in his article – that despite the skirmishes that took place between Iran and Israel over the past three years, both countries realize that open war is not in their interests, but if that view changes in either country, this may lead to a war between them. .

Causes and repercussions

The writer indicates that Tehran may decide to enter a war with Tel Aviv to divert attention from its internal problems, such as the popular uprising and the deterioration of the economy. You may see that a short war against Israel might bring it political gains in the region that outweigh the risks resulting from the war.

For its part, Israel may decide that a quick and destructive war would help delegitimize and destabilize Iran, and contribute to limiting its influence in the region. The Israelis realize that bombarding their cities with Iranian missiles would be inconvenient, but they see that a war with Iran does not pose an existential threat to Israel.

balance of power

With regard to the balance of power between the two parties, Farley believes that Israel is superior to Iran in various military fields, with the exception of conventional ballistic missiles.

The Israeli Air Force can strike targets all over Iran, although it may face challenges in maintaining permission to overfly Iran’s neighbors if the war drags on.

The writer says that it would be wise not to participate in the war with the Iranian Air Force, which may not avoid being destroyed due to the remoteness of its eastern bases from Israel. Israel also enjoys great naval capabilities through which it can overcome Iran’s arms on the ground.

For its part, Iran has significant military capabilities in both Syria and Iraq. Iran’s missiles located in the two countries can hit targets throughout Israel, and may temporarily overcome the network of Israeli missile defense systems, and Iran can bomb Israel with ballistic missiles from Iranian territory.


In his article, the American professor and author asks about the duration of the war in the event of its outbreak, and reviews a number of factors that would play a pivotal role in determining this, including the missile stockpile of the factions and movements that are waging a proxy war in favor of Iran, and the ability of those parties to bear “punishment.” Israel,” as the author describes it.

On the other hand, Israel’s infliction of great damage on Iran would exhaust the good intentions of the Arab Gulf states, and the length and shortness of the war would depend on the position of the United States on it.

Farley says that despite the United States’ marked reluctance to strike Iran over the past few years with pretexts to do so, it may be more inclined to intervene on Israel’s behalf.

The article concluded that the high cost of the war will be paid – in the end – by innocent civilians in the countries that will be included, who have nothing to do with how and why that war was launched.

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