British site: Are international sanctions turning Sudan into another Yemen or Libya?
Views were divided about the expected consequences of the sanctions imposed by the international community on Sudan, following the seizure of power by army commander Abdel Fattah al-Burhan on October 25, amid fears that the country might become subject to pressure from regional and international axes.
This is stated in a report From Khartoum, it was published by the British Middle East Eye website, in which it stated that those who support these sanctions say that they might help defeat the generals, while others expressed their willingness to accept them with some conditions, while another section questioned their feasibility, considering them as an external intervention. in the affairs of the country.
The report attributed to some analysts warning that such sanctions may create a state of instability in the country, such as Iraq, Libya, Yemen and others, and leave Sudan at the mercy of competing regional and international players.
You will not touch the military leaders
Many fear that these sanctions will not affect the military leaders, but will cause great harm to the Sudanese people.
Among those who welcomed Western sanctions, the forces of freedom and change that helped lead the protests that led to the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir in April 2019, Alwathiq al-Barir, a prominent member of these forces from the National Umma Party, stressed that they strongly support external pressure on the army, As one of the main tools to end the coup.
Al-Barir said that the forces of freedom and change will use various types of escalation on the ground, in cooperation with the international community, to pressure the army to back down from the coup, and “we will not accept any kind of talks with the leaders of the coup, until the situation returns to what it was before the day of the coup.”
keen on stability
Al-Barir added that they are keen not to repeat destabilizing scenarios, as is the case in Libya or Yemen, where there are two governments that might divide the country itself.
A source in the Sudanese Communist Party – who asked not to be identified – said that the international community will not change the situation on the ground or the balance of power inside Sudan.
targeted US sanctions
Former US diplomat Cameron Hudson – current fellow at the Atlantic Council – said he believes that US sanctions will not negatively affect Sudanese citizens, because they will only be applied to individual generals and army-owned companies, adding that their goal is to put pressure on the military and impose a cost. Exorbitant to them as people for their actions, not to the Sudanese people.
Sudanese political analyst Khaled Al-Tijani warned that although the West’s support for the ousted Prime Minister Abdullah Hamdok will put pressure on the army, it may put Sudan on the path of divisions and destabilization witnessed in Libya and Yemen, because Sudan was already in a fragile state, and that the coup further complicated the situation. situation in it.
Al-Tijani explained that external interventions in the form of sanctions or others would allow the international community – which always gives priority to security and stability, rather than justice or democracy in fragile countries such as Sudan – to have a role in decision-making in the country.
Perhaps the West will be satisfied with the proof
Al-Tijani added that if the dynamic of international politics supports Hamdok’s government now, it will not last forever, especially since the proof is trying to address the concerns and interests of the West in Sudan, such as normalization with Israel and implementing an economic policy that the West is satisfied with, among other assurances.
Sudanese political analyst Khaled Saeed believes that although international pressure will help isolate the military rulers, it will push Sudan to fall under regional and international influence, adding that Sudan has been trying during the past two years to get out of the influence of regional and international axes, “but this coup will bring us back there.” once again”.
Saeed added that the West’s intervention with sanctions and others will lead to interference from Russia and China, which are close to the army, and therefore this race will seriously affect the country as well, in addition to the influence of neighboring countries that the West uses to maintain its influence in the country.