Sunday, November 28

What are Haftar’s chances of gaining power through the ballot boxes, after he failed to achieve his dream through ammunition boxes?

Public opinion feels that Haftar has abandoned his military path, but did he forcibly abandon him after his military failure, or did he abandon him of his own free will for a temporary period?

TripoliRetired Major General Khalifa Haftar submits his credentials to the High Electoral Commission to participate in the presidential elections and is burdened with a record of human rights violations since 2014.

Haftar is entering the presidential elections, testing his chances at the polls, after his recent defeat in the war on the capital, Tripoli, and his failure to gain power by force of arms.

The Libyans are awaiting the announcement of the High Electoral Commission to sort out the entire lists of candidates for the presidential elections to know the formations of the new scene and who will remain of the candidates, to begin the career of the former presidential candidate to rule Libya through the ballot boxes.

Analysts and politicians consider that the chances of Haftar winning are slim if the elections are held in an honest manner, as he is a controversial figure accused of war crimes that exacerbated the conflict over the past years.

Libyans are holding their breath in anticipation of December 24, the date of the first round of presidential elections, which is considered a pivotal station, followed by the course of the country’s future with open scenarios after years of turmoil, chaos and conflicts.

Attorney General Al-Siddiq Al-Sour discussed with the Head of the High Electoral Commission Imad Al-Sayeh the efforts of the Commission to verify that the candidates for the presidency and the House of Representatives meet the conditions stipulated in the legislation of the electoral process, in particular, the Commission verifies that “there is no judicial ruling with a penalty stipulated in the articles of felonies or misdemeanors that violate honor.” Confronting the candidates based on the records of the Public Prosecution.

Haftar is an aggravating factor

Political analyst Abdullah Al-Kabeer stressed that Haftar is an aggravating factor, and his entry into the presidential race threatens the failure of the electoral vote as a whole.

He added, “It seems that the international forces that supported Haftar in his previous wars are still betting on his project and are pushing hard for the elections, despite their knowledge of the widespread popular rejection of Haftar.”

Al-Kabeer told Al-Jazeera Net that Haftar has a chance to win, but it is not a great chance, noting that if Abdel Hamid Dabaiba is not allowed to run, his chance of winning will increase.

He considered that Haftar’s areas of influence are his areas of control, and their electoral weight is not great, but he may have supporters in the south and west, and if Saif al-Islam Gaddafi is excluded, his supporters may line up behind Haftar to defy the candidates of the February 2011 revolution.

Al-Kabeer pointed out that the popular rejection of the candidacy of Gaddafi and Haftar, and the insistence on laws rejected by most political parties, may push them to postpone or boycott and perhaps not conduct them in some areas, which will inevitably lead to a failure to recognize their results by the boycotting parties, marking the continuation of the conflict.

Weaknesses for everyone

In turn, political analyst Abdel Hakim Maatouk believes that each candidate has weaknesses, whether due to military actions, corruption, political past and societal reputation, and they can be dropped on Khalifa Haftar, Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, Fathi Bashagha and the rest of the candidates.

He said, “Libyans will be very cautious during the secret ballot stage and before it, and there is now no reliable questionnaire to know the desire of the street for whom it wants to choose accurately until this moment, especially since every candidate is trying to make propaganda for himself in his region or in other regions that support him.” However, we cannot say who is the most fortunate.

In his statement to Al Jazeera Net, Maatouq said that the conditions provided by the President’s Election Law allow everyone who feels the ability and competence to run in accordance with the terms of the Electoral Commission.

He explained that the map of alliances is scattered, as you find supporters of Haftar in Benghazi and there are those who reject him, as is the case with Saif Gaddafi. The picture is not clear until the candidates are accepted by the High Electoral Commission, and everyone passes the stage of appeals before the judiciary.

Haftar was unable to control the Libyan capital, Tripoli, and reach power by force of arms (European)

Low chances for Haftar

The director of the “Astrolab” Center, Abdul Salam Al-Rajhi, confirmed that Haftar’s chances of reaching power in the elections are very weak, if the polls are conducted under international and impartial monitoring by allowing all candidates to run in the electoral race, including electoral campaigns on the ground and access to Haftar’s control areas.

He continued, saying to Al Jazeera Net, “Whoever ended the project of Haftar’s dream of power, whether through the ballot box or the ammunition box by force, is his defeat in the capital, Tripoli, which broke up what remained of Haftar’s popularity and showed his madness, illness and criminality when he failed, and the discovery of who was believed to be a good character, his many crimes, among which are his many crimes. Mass graves in Tarhuna.

Al-Rajhi believes that Haftar will have chances in the city of Sirte by virtue of the presence of his cousins ​​Al-Furjan, and in the cities of Ajdabiya, Benghazi, regions and villages on the outskirts of Benghazi, and in Ubari and Sabha, but in general the voter turnout for Haftar will not exceed 15% if the elections are held in an impartial manner and with international monitoring.

He stated that Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi’s chances of accepting his papers and adopting him as a final candidate are difficult due to the existence of court rulings against him.

Al-Rajhi indicated that Haftar may be accepted, despite committing war crimes, given that his chances are weak, which is the best way to enter and lose the elections, yet he will impose himself by force on the Libyan scene, he said.

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