Egypt is waving again the migration card to Europe.. What is the relationship of the Renaissance Dam?

Cairo – Cairo renewed its warning against illegal immigration to Europe due to the water shortage resulting from filling and operating the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without reaching an agreement binding on all parties. More supportive of the Egyptian position.

The water shortage will not only affect Egypt, but will extend to European countries through waves of illegal immigration, according to the Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Mohamed Abdel-Aty, knowing that the migration file resulting from the political, social and economic turmoil in the countries of the region is one of the most troublesome issues for Europe.

.yesterday saturday, With US government water expert Matthew Parks, and US Deputy Ambassador to Cairo Nicole Champagne, QAl Abdel-Aty said that any shortage of water will affect workers in the agricultural sector, and this will cause social problems and security instability in the region and will increase illegal immigration.

Egypt ranks first in the Arab world and third in Africa in terms of population, with more than 102 million people.

The Egyptian Minister of Irrigation stressed that there are great challenges facing the water sector in his country, on top of which are the limited water resources, population increase, and the negative effects of climate change. Egypt’s water needs amount to about 114 billion cubic meters annually, with an estimated deficit of 54 billion cubic meters annually, noting that This gap is filled by reusing water, and Egypt imports agricultural crops equivalent to about 34 billion cubic meters annually.

With regard to the current position of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam negotiations, Abdel-Aty said that Egypt showed great flexibility during the various stages of negotiation due to its desire to reach a fair and binding agreement regarding filling and operating the dam, calling for the need for specific procedures to deal with various droughts, especially in Egypt’s main dependence remained on the Nile River.

He pointed out that Egypt made several attempts to build confidence during the negotiation stages, but this was not met with good faith by the Ethiopian side, as he described it.

Continuous Egyptian warnings

Abdel-Aty’s warning about the impact of the Renaissance Dam on irregular migration was not the first issued by Cairo. Last July, Abdel-Aty himself warned that any shortage of water resources would have huge negative repercussions on a large proportion of the country’s population, explaining that the damages It will include the agricultural sector and the loss of job opportunities, which will lead to a state of societal instability that will lead to a large wave of irregular migration to European countries and others, or the joining of young people to terrorist groups, as he put it.

Egypt depends on water for 97% of the Nile River, and the per capita share of water does not exceed 560 cubic meters annually. Water, while the amount of rain falling on Egypt does not exceed 1.3 billion cubic meters annually.

A clear message to the West

and agree Dia Al-Din Al-Qussi The former advisor to the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation agrees with Abdel-Aty’s statements to the American delegation, and sees it as “a clear message to the West in numbers. The shortage of one billion cubic meters of water is deducted from Egypt’s current share of 55.5 billion cubic meters, which means that 200,000 feddans are out of service, owned by 200,000 holders (farmers). And each holder supports a family of 5, and this means that, in principle, there are a million citizens who will suffer from hunger, and therefore they have no choice but to emigrate.”

Al-Qusi added – in statements to Al-Jazeera Net – that the West should realize that Egypt is the pomegranate of the balance in the Middle East, and that any disturbance that occurs in it due to the lack of water will not be limited to it, calling on the international community to understand the fact that Cairo has exhausted all peaceful methods and means, and has not It has no choice but to direct its planes to strike the dam militarily, as he put it.

Al-Qusi said that many countries understand Egypt’s position, noting that the United States is not satisfied with the Ethiopian actions in the file of the Renaissance Dam, pointing to the statements of former US President Donald Trump about the possibility of Egypt moving militarily towards the dam in the event the negotiations continue to fail.

Last October, Egypt expressed its desire to complete the Renaissance Dam negotiations, provided that its water rights are preserved, with the aim of reaching a fair and binding agreement for all parties to the crisis. This came when the Egyptian Minister of Irrigation received a delegation of international organizations working in the field of water resources management, and representatives of the European Union and the embassies of the United States, Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.

Ethiopia prepares for achievement

On the other hand, the project manager of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam – Keflo Horo – said that the construction completion rate of the dam has reached 83%, adding that preparations are underway to produce the primary energy from the dam by operating two turbines, generating an energy of 700 megawatts.

Horo explained – in an interview with Al Jazeera – that the amount of rain that fell this year exceeded expectations, adding that the initial filling of the dam would be successfully completed in its first and second stages by 18.5 billion cubic meters.

Last July, Addis Ababa announced the successful completion of the second phase of filling the dam, which was planned with 13.5 billion cubic meters of water, without declaring the volume of water that had already been stored, and Ethiopia seeks to store 74 billion cubic meters.

The reserved water behind the dam in the first filling is estimated at about 4.9 billion cubic meters, bringing the total target to 18.4 billion cubic metres, but Egyptian specialists have questioned these figures on more than one occasion, and confirmed that Ethiopia did not reserve more than 10 billion cubic meters of water in the previous two phases. .

Migration scarecrow or reality?

“It is not a scarecrow nor a paper, but a reality,” this is how the advisor of the United Nations Development Program on the waters of the Nile, Mohamed Mohieldin (Egyptian), described Egypt’s threat to launch irregular migration from the Egyptian coasts on the Mediterranean to Europe.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Mohieddin stressed that the warnings of the Minister of Irrigation are a fact that must be taken into account, because any shortage of irrigation water will lead to instability in a country with a population of more than 100 million people, and the lack of one billion of water means the loss of 200 thousand acres. Thousands of farmers lost their jobs and livelihoods.

He warned that the impact of the water shortage will not be limited to agriculture, but will extend to other sectors such as industry and tourism, and this will raise the unemployment rate.

And then – and the talk is still for the international expert – the crisis will push migration flows on two levels: the first is internal migration towards the capitals of cities, and the second is irregular external migration across the Mediterranean, and this will lead to a great deal of instability.

Mohieddin believes that the West did not react sufficiently to the crisis, so the international advisor sees that the Egyptian warnings are an important message to the West, which is mainly suffering from illegal immigration, adding that “the West does not act except in the light of its interests, and when it senses and verifies that there is a real threat of possible The influx of a large number of illegal immigrants will not stand idly by.”

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