Stratfor: After the protesters described him as a traitor and surrender, Hamdok’s return is not expected to calm the protests
Stratfor Books (Stratfor) that reinstating Sudan’s civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok will not be enough to satisfy the pro-democracy protest movement that will continue to destabilize the fragile country.
The American website indicated that Hamdok was released two days before house arrest and returned to his position, as part of an agreement with the army chief and the leader of the October 25 coup, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and that under the agreement, Hamdok will lead a technocratic civilian government that will continue to facilitate the democratic transition in the country. Sudan as planned, including holding elections before July 2023.
Nevertheless, the pro-democracy protesters from the Sudanese Professionals Association condemned the agreement, describing the prime minister as a traitor and a capitulator.
However, the site believes that Hamdok’s return will ease Western pressure on Al-Burhan after the coup, despite the continued protests that undermine internal stability in Sudan.
The site alluded to the joint statement issued on November 21 in which the United States, the European Union, Britain, Norway, Switzerland and Canada expressed their support for Hamdok’s return to his position, and called for the release of the remaining civilian cabinet members who were arrested in the wake of the military coup last month, which is what Al-Burhan pledged to implement it in the coming days.
The key question in determining Sudan’s future is whether the pro-democracy groups will be pacified by anything other than the complete relinquishment of military power.
But the leaders of the pro-democracy movement in Sudan – the Forces of Freedom and Change, the Sudanese Congress Party (a member of the Forces for Freedom and Change) and the gathering of political parties – said that they would not recognize any deal with the army, because they had no guarantees that they would go ahead with that deal.
Looking ahead, the main question in determining Sudan’s future is whether the pro-democracy groups will be pacified by anything other than the complete relinquishment of military power.
He added that Burhan would continue to face strong internal opposition in the form of large-scale and relatively peaceful protests. As local pressure continues, the security forces will likely crack down on protesters as they did in response to the November 17 protests, which will increase civilian casualties.
Hamdok’s ability to mitigate this violence is also likely to be limited, as the authority granted to him under his new agreement with Al-Burhan remains uncertain.
The website concluded that the Sudanese Professionals Association is credited with organizing and leading many of the demonstrations that eventually led to the fall of former President Omar al-Bashir. Despite power outages and security force disruptions, the SPA remains very effective in demonstrating against the current military government.