Saturday, November 27

US experts dismantle Israel’s role in Iran nuclear negotiations

Washington – The New York Times quoted officials familiar with the matter as saying that officials in Washington warned the Israelis that “repeated attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities may be tactically satisfactory, but ultimately counterproductive.” Washington believes that Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities may achieve some goals in the short term, but it will harm the larger goal, which is stopping the Iranian nuclear program.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz says, “We are conducting an assessment of the Iranian issue, and we have constant contact with the Americans on this issue. The United States has been a great friend of Israel over the years, and we will find the appropriate way to exchange views and manage divergence of views whenever they are found.”

With the approach of the seventh round of the nuclear file negotiations, hosted by the Austrian capital Vienna, there is increasing talk of a wide Israeli influence on the American negotiating team, especially after the former ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro, who is known for his closeness to the Israeli military establishment, joined him.

Al Jazeera Net spoke to a number of the most important American experts regarding the nature of Israel’s role in the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear file, and the extent to which it is close or far from the positions of President Joe Biden’s administration.

With the approach of the seventh round of nuclear negotiations, there is increasing talk of a wide Israeli influence on the American negotiating team (Reuters)

Alex Vatanka is a researcher on Iran at the Middle East Institute in Washington

“The divisions are deep and exhausting for both sides, yet both sides have to try to overcome them. Neither side wants to bear the costs of not succeeding and confronting alternatives to escalation to the possibility of war. I think that both sides have room to adjust their positions to find common space to reach a minimum level of conflict. An agreement between them, and that is the best we can hope for. Such an agreement can evolve and become more comprehensive in time if both sides show a political interest in moving this diplomatic process forward.”

“The Biden team must constantly reassure Israel that Washington will not tolerate an Iranian nuclear weapon, but Israel must give Biden the space needed for diplomacy to work. The Israeli government is likely to accept that there is no military solution that Israel can make to stop the nuclear program,” Vatanka added. At the moment, Israel’s best bet is to support the efforts of the American diplomatic track with Iran.”

David Bullock is a former State Department official and expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy

“I think the divisions are wide between the two parties, but both sides agree to keep it calm and to consult constantly to narrow it down or at least contain it. But the longer Iran delays reaching an agreement, the more agreement will appear between the United States and Israel in this regard.”

Pollack indicated that, “Once talks resume, I believe that the United States will work with Israel to avoid disrupting them, and the solution may be to support Israeli strikes against Iran in the non-nuclear arena, in Syria or in international waters, and this is a major difference between the approaches of Barack Obama and Biden in this the field”.

Giorgio Cafiero: Director of the Institute for Gulf States Studies

“Perhaps no country in the world opposes the JCPOA like Israel. Israeli officials have spent years voicing their opposition to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, and Israel has had significant concerns about how the nuclear crisis between the United States and Iran might be resolved at the expense of interests.” perceived Tel Aviv”.

And “Just as the Israeli government was different from the Obama administration when it comes to the attitude toward Iran, the leadership in Tel Aviv sees the issue of the Iranian nuclear file in the same way during the Biden administration, and this means that this issue constitutes one source of tension between the two sides. But in Israel, it understands That the United States will make its decision on how to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue based on the U.S. government’s assessment of Washington’s interests, even if that means Washington takes a position that contradicts Israel’s, the Israelis will have no choice but to accept this as a reality, just as They should have done with Obama in 2015. Efforts to persuade the Democratic administration in the United States not to return to the agreement are likely to be futile, and Tel Aviv would be wise to avoid a major clash with the Biden administration on this sensitive file.

But Cafiero is of the opinion, “However, Israel may have absolutely nothing to worry about when it comes to reinstating the nuclear deal. There is very good reason to assume that the parties that agreed to the JCPOA in 2015 will not be able to get the deal done.” “For reasons not directly related to Israel. Instead, these factors stem mostly from Iran’s inability to trust the United States when it comes to Washington’s guarantees that it will remain in compliance with the multilateral agreement.”

Sina Azudi is an expert at the Atlantic Council and a researcher at the Institute for Gulf States Studies

“I think they have a common goal of addressing what they see as Iran’s technological advances in the nuclear field, and both agree that Iran’s nuclear progress cannot go unchecked, but they differ on how to address this dilemma. While the United States appears committed to a diplomatic solution, The Israeli security culture leads it to take more drastic measures, including sabotage, assassinations, and even direct military attacks.”

Ozodi noted that “when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed in 2015, the Obama administration sold F-35 fighter jets to Israel to allay its concerns, and this time the Biden administration could pursue the same policy. At the same time, with nuclear talks continuing Biden could issue clearer security guarantees to the Israelis or offer alternative plans if diplomacy with Iran fails.

Jawdat Bahgat is Professor at the Near East and South Asia Center at the US National Defense University of the Pentagon

“For a long time, many commentators have debated whether the United States and Israel are in agreement regarding the Iranian nuclear program. Many analysts believe that Israel has always urged the United States to strike Iran, that the US military capabilities exceed those of Israel, and in this context it is believed Some analysts claim that Israel is exaggerating the Iranian threat in order to persuade Washington to attack Tehran.

Bahgat noted that “there are reports that the Israeli government at least twice wanted to strike Iran militarily, but the military leaders opposed such attacks for fear of what might happen the day after the attack. There are reports that the United States and Israel were together behind the cyber attack known as gaming. Olympic Games, at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility in 2008-2010, and some reports claim that the United States for a long time refused to provide Israel with advanced weapons that could hit Iranian facilities underground.

In general, many analysts believe that the United States prefers diplomacy, meaning that the American public is tired of eternal wars in the Middle East, and Israel is more supportive of military action because Israeli leaders feel that their country will be threatened by a nuclear Iran more than the United States. “Israeli leaders, and other regional powers, view the United States under the Trump and Biden administrations as focusing on the threat from China as a major US national security priority,” Bahgat says.

Finally, it cannot be excluded that the United States and Israel share roles to pressure Iran in different ways. Professor Bahgat asserts that “senior American officials meet periodically with their Israeli (and Arab) counterparts to discuss the Iranian nuclear program, and there is a great deal of intelligence sharing between all these parties hostile to Iran.”

Barbara Slavin is an expert on Iran and director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council

“I think this Israeli government will do everything in its power to work with the Biden administration and not embarrass it. Frankly, with Iran not appearing to be a collaborator at the moment, it is easier for the United States and Israel to appear as a united front against Tehran.”

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