Nigeria, Indonesia and others.. Countries that will change the economic balance in 2050
At a time when the world is facing major challenges, such as the Corona pandemic, climate change and the intensification of geopolitical conflicts, Lionel Fontaine, Professor of Economics at the French Panthéon-Sorbonne University, expects a shift in the world’s economic balance of weight in favor of Asia by 2050.
Lionel Fontaine is also a professor at the Paris School of Economics. He directed the Center for Future Studies and International Information between 2000 and 2006. He is a participant in the study issued by the center entitled “Prospects for 2050.. Where does the current dynamism take the global economy?”
This expert expects that China’s economic power will surpass the United States starting in 2031, according to a study published this week, conducted by the Center for Future Studies and International Information, which is the main French center for research in the international economy.
The first expectations that this research work extracted is the continuation of Chinese progress, as the Asian giant will surpass the United States in 2031, that is, during the next few years, an indicator that clearly explains the deterioration of relations between Washington and Beijing, especially in the files of international trade and geopolitical accounts. The bet is related to the United States losing its position as the center of gravity of the global economy.
The same study indicates that France will lose a lot of weight in the economic race, rolling from sixth to ninth place, to be surpassed by countries such as Nigeria and Indonesia.
In an interview published by La Tribune, writer Gregory Normont explains (latribuneFrench, that these economic forecasts are based on indicators of economic and demographic growth, in addition to other criteria related to technological development, quality of education, investments and savings.
Leonel Fontaney explains the change in the balance of power towards Asia as an inevitable result of the rise of China, as well as India and Indonesia, and it is expected that a generation from now that China will be the leader in the global economy.
This expert also believes that the reason behind the expectations that Nigeria and Indonesia will advance towards the seventh and eighth places, respectively, in the ranking of global economies by 2050, is the demographic indicators of these two countries, in which there is a significant proportion of active youth, the accumulation of capital, and a significant increase in productivity thanks to Take advantage of technology, which will allow them to outperform France.
On the other hand, Fontaine believes that Europe will suffer because of its aging demographic structure, and even the investments and measures taken by these countries in preparation for the future will have limited results due to the problems that the labor market will face in light of the high proportion of the elderly.
This study also showed that the world’s energy consumption will double, and it will be difficult to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in the year 2050.
Fontaine points out that not all countries have declared their commitment to this environmental goal, and given demographic accounts, capital accumulation, and the reality of productivity, the demand for energy in the world will increase dramatically in the coming decades, despite the presence of technological development that increases energy efficiency, and if the world is He wants to achieve sustainable and environmentally friendly economic growth, so he must quickly get rid of carbon emissions as soon as possible.
Fontaney also warns of the necessity of separating economic growth on the one hand, and environmental pollution on the other, as development indicators for the next generation on the planet, based on calculations of demography, investment and technological development, herald an improvement in purchasing power in countries that are on the path to growth, This will allow improving the quality of education and maintaining a good standard of living, but this global economic growth will not be positive, if the link between it and pollution and the destruction of the planet through the intense consumption of fossil fuels continues.