One of them is the agreement of Iran and the Western powers on “a little for a little” .. 3 scenarios before the Vienna negotiations
While Tehran does not accept the proposals of the negotiating parties and rejects the idea of an interim agreement that Washington wants, other parties also do not accept Tehran’s conditions, and many are trying to find out what Iran wants from the negotiations in Vienna.
Tehran- Negotiations by the parties to the nuclear agreement are continuing in their seventh round in the Austrian capital Vienna, with Iran and the other parties to the talks, led by the United States, sticking to their declared positions before the current round of negotiations.
On Tuesday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said that Iran will not accept any new nuclear commitments outside the terms of the 2015 nuclear agreement, and that its focus in Vienna will be on lifting sanctions, and that it will not accept the principle of step for step, or any new commitments.
While Tehran confirms its rejection of the proposals of the negotiating parties or the idea of an interim agreement that Washington wants, the rest of the parties affirm that they will not accept Tehran’s conditions, amid questions about what Iran really wants from the negotiations in Vienna.
Iran’s primary goal
International issues analyst Shoaib Bahman believes that Iran’s primary goal is to lift sanctions, and the purpose of the talks is to find a way to do this and resolve differences, because the Americans do not believe in lifting sanctions all at once.
Bahman added to Al Jazeera Net that the problem here is that Iran’s return to its full commitments can happen quickly, but on the other hand, verification of the lifting of sanctions by the United States may take a long time, and this is a matter of disagreement between the two negotiating parties.
According to experts, Iran seeks to achieve 3 main goals in Vienna; First, the lifting of US sanctions, then verification by Iran that the lifting has become effective, and finally ensuring that the United States does not withdraw from the agreement again.
Situations and facts
Political analyst and former Iranian ambassador to Hungary and Norway Abdolreza Faraji Rad believes that political and diplomatic positions differ from the facts on the negotiating table.
In Farji Rad’s opinion, Tehran and Washington were not ready to negotiate and reach a new agreement, as they are now. On the one hand, the Raisi government, with its economic and livelihood problems, needs to succeed in these negotiations and lift sanctions, and on the other hand, the Biden government needs a guarantee of limiting Iran’s nuclear capability in order to focus more on a confrontation with China.
Analysts believe that the agreement requires the two parties to reach a common understanding on the grounds for negotiations, and this will only be achieved by lowering the parties’ expectations.
International affairs analyst Jalal Khosh Jahra expected that the current round of negotiations would witness gradual adjustments in each of the positions of Tehran and the rest of the parties in the talks.
little for little
Khush Jahra said, in an interview with Al-Jazeera Net, “We will see a temporary agreement, a little for a little, and its implementation will be gradual and similar to a ceasefire between the two parties.”
On the other hand, the Westerners understand that a new government has come to power in Iran and was one of the opponents of the nuclear agreement, and therefore they will give the new Iranian negotiators a chance in this round, and they will have this interaction with Iran, according to what Khosh Jahra believes.
Some believe that although there are many obstacles to reviving the 2015 agreement, we need to work on how to deal with it and achieve the goal of lifting US sanctions, and the lack of alternatives does not give the two parties any choice but to reach an agreement in Vienna.
According to the political analyst and former head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee in the Iranian parliament, Heshmatullah Falahatpisheh, there are 3 possible scenarios for negotiations.
The first optimistic scenario is the revival of the agreement in 2015, in which the two sides agree on a text that is a mixture of 90% of the Rouhani government’s agreement with the 4+1 group, and this formula is not expected in the short term.
There is also a pessimistic view, according to Falahat Bish, that the negotiations will be complicated, and that the two parties will search for an excuse for their failure, and issue a statement specifying the reasons for the differences, and this scenario, if it happens, in the opinion of Falahat Bish, will be at the expense of Iran.
As for what can be called the third scenario, it is the “cease-fire” formula, and the strengthening of diplomatic means, where an agreement is reached under which Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency are able to stop Iran’s current nuclear agenda, without retreating from it, and at the same time the two parties establish a regime Monitor, check and update cameras on Iran’s facilities.
On the other hand, agree to release some frozen Iranian assets, and amend the sanctions that prevent Iran from accessing its resources, and the Iranian economy will gain clear benefits from that, and this, of course, will enhance diplomacy and trust between the negotiating parties.