Strategic expert: Germany holds the key to deterring Russian moves against Ukraine

30 years after the outbreak of the Yugoslav war, Europe is once again facing the prospect of a major armed conflict within it. Observers estimate the number of troops that Russia has deployed on its border with Ukraine at around 100,000 and worry that this may mean preparing to invade this country soon.

This is what Fritz Stern, president of the Brookings Institution, began. article He wrote in the Financial Times, where he stated that there is a feeling among some of the existence of blackmail from the Russian side, especially since what is happening today is similar to what happened in previous times, but the situation today is much worse than it was 30 years ago in the areas of Several, according to this strategist.

Under the title “Germany holds the key to deterring Russian moves against Ukraine”, Stern recalled what happened in the nineties when the United States was reluctant to participate in ending the bloodshed on the Balkan Peninsula, noting in this regard that Germany, when it decided to intervene, did so in support of the European alliance and did not Exhausted Russia intervened at the time, and even pressured Serbian dictator Slobodan Milosevic to withdraw his forces from Kosovo, so NATO planes stopped bombing Belgrade, ending the war in which Germany participated in the field, but after a painful debate about whether its history allows it to do so.

Today – the writer says – the administration of US President Joe Biden affirms that it is firmly committed to the security of European and Ukrainian sovereignty, however, it is paralyzed as a result of political polarization and is fully aware of the limited impact on voters who are tired of war and no longer trust politics.

Stern noted here that the few “hawks” left in Washington are now focusing exclusively on China, and the policy of restraint and not being drawn into combat operations is finding more and more bipartisan support.

At the same time, the writer says that Russia conspired with Belarus to use immigration to the European Union as a weapon and detonated a satellite with a missile, creating a debris field in low Earth orbit, which threatens the world’s space infrastructure.

On the other hand – the writer says – the Russian state company “Gazprom” was keen – despite the lack of supply and high prices – to fill gas storage facilities in Germany.

Wish List

The writer mentioned that Russia has been waging a proxy war in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine since 2014, which has so far killed more than 13,000 people.

But he noted that Russia submitted a list of wishes to the United States and NATO last week that included the issue of the alliance’s expansion and the elimination of all American nuclear weapons in Europe, including the German B-61 bomb.

Such desires go beyond the question of Ukraine, as Moscow is in fact demanding a zone of influence that begins at Germany’s eastern border and is free of nuclear weapons, a proposal unacceptable in the West.

The expert commented on this by saying that these demands – even if their aim is to press for diplomatic negotiations and bring about a coup in Kiev – are very dangerous.

Stern considered that the threat of Washington and Brussels to Moscow with “serious consequences and serious costs” – if it takes military action against Ukraine – is shrouded in ambiguity, noting that this ambiguity may have been intended so that there is no justification for escalation, and that it may have been an attempt to hide Europe’s division against itself. In this matter.

As for Germany, Stern believes that it can no longer invoke history to stay aside, as it and other major European economies are the necessary pillar of Western efforts to deter Putin, highlighting that all possible measures – such as sanctions on Russian entities, the rapid electronic payment system or the Nord pipeline Stream 2″ – all of it will be financially and politically costly for the new government and (for German Chancellor) Olaf Schulz.

But what are the alternatives? The writer wonders, to comment that the war in Yugoslavia lasted 10 years, with an estimated death toll of 40,000, and the Balkan Peninsula is still a problematic area, and Putin – says Stern – should bear in mind that two of the six former communist republics of Yugoslavia are currently within the European Union, And that 4 of them are members of NATO.

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