What is the expected scenario for the future of diplomatic missions and foreign companies after the US withdrawal from Iraq?

A question arises about the possibility that the armed factions will continue to target diplomatic missions and foreign economic and investment interests, especially the American ones, after the end of the combat missions of the American forces and their exit from Iraq at the end of this year according to the agreement concluded between Baghdad and Washington.

The possibility did not stop there, but it went beyond what is deeper and broader in terms of the possibility of the international community interfering in Iraqi affairs if the armed factions’ control over the security and political files emerged after the withdrawal in conjunction with the loss of parties affiliated with them and close to Iran for a high percentage of their seats in The last elections were held on the tenth of last October.

These fears come as the Iraqi embassy and military bases where Americans are present continue to be targeted, the last of which was at dawn last Sunday when the Green Zone was bombed with two Katyusha missiles, and according to the spokesman for the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces, Major General Yahya Rasoul, the first was shot down by the air defense system. “C-RAM” of the US Embassy, ​​while the second fell within the approaches to the ceremonial square within the region.

75 operations in 2020

And the attacks of armed factions against American bases, whether in the Green Zone in Baghdad or other areas, including in the Kurdistan region, increased in 2020, according to press reports, which amounted to about 75 operations that varied between targeting by drones and rocket-propelled grenades, after the killing of the Iranian Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani and Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis, deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Authority, carried out an aerial bombardment at Baghdad International Airport.

The armed factions and Shiite political parties have confirmed more than once that they will launch armed attacks against American interests if the strategic agreement is not implemented and withdraw from the country at the end of this year, with one of them announcing the opening of volunteering to form full forces to attack American forces.

Mint linking the recent escalation of armed factions in Iraq to the course of negotiations over the Iranian nuclear program (Al Jazeera Net)

Negotiations in us and the latest escalation

Political researcher Dr. Muhammad Nana’ links the recent escalation of armed factions in Iraq directly to the course of negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program between the international powers and Tehran that are taking place in Vienna, and describes it as a “lagging path”, noting that when Tehran lost, through recent negotiations, the opportunity to lift sanctions imposed on it, the Iraqi armed factions and political actors deliberately escalated on the ground through two missile launches at the Green Zone, as well as escalation politically by refusing to end the objection to the election results.

Nanaa adds to this that the chronic media escalation depicting the Iraqi scene is hijacked by America, and that the latter is coordinating with the government of Prime Minister Mustafa Al-Kazemi to weaken Tehran’s role in Iraq, which will cause Iran to lose one of its most important negotiating cards represented by the situation in Iraq.

As for the possibility that armed factions will continue to target American interests and foreign missions even after the withdrawal of combat forces, the researcher in the political affairs believes that the decline in Iran’s role in Iraq is offset by the relative rise of the American role through the recent results of the elections as well as obtaining investments in the field of gas, which motivates the factions. Armed forces to carry out several attacks on US bases and interests, whether combat forces withdrew or not.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Nanaa attributed this to the success of the Al-Kazemi government in limiting the factions’ ability to continue with missile strikes and to bring leaders and elements of the “death squads” associated with them to justice, as well as to its political and popular failure and its inability to organize large human gatherings during the recent demonstrations, and this This will make it besieged in an unprecedented manner and pave the way for striking its headquarters and weapons stores as a second step after neutralizing its missile strikes and rendering them useless.

This path is consistent – according to Nanaa – with the desire of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, who is weighing on the coordination framework that is politically linked to the factions in order to tear it up by adhering to the project of the national majority, which will necessarily aim at dismantling the coordination framework.

In sum, the armed factions and the political actors representing them or associated with them and their external supporters will be in a very difficult situation that will force them to make concessions to the government and political partners, but after a series of reviews in the form of futile attacks on US bases and interests, according to Mint.

He points out that these operations have two goals, the first is to preserve the reputation of the popular resistance and to win political negotiation cards in the course of the negotiations to form the new government, and the second will be to preserve their role as active “agents” in regional files.

Mohi is far from targeting US economic and investment interests, similar to what the US embassy and bases were exposed to by the factions after the withdrawal (Al-Jazeera Net)Mohi ruled out targeting US economic and investment interests by the factions after the withdrawal (Al-Jazeera Net)

Dissenting opinion and encrypted messages

The Iraqi parliament had voted on a parliamentary resolution obligating the government to cancel the request for assistance from the US-led international coalition to fight the Islamic State, in addition to calling on the Iraqi government to work to end the presence of any foreign forces on Iraqi soil. This is what Dr. Moataz Mohi, director of the Republican Center for Security and Strategic Studies, based on. He ruled out targeting US economic and investment interests, similar to what the US embassy and bases were exposed to by the factions after the withdrawal.

In his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, Mohi comments on the recent targeting of the US embassy and the Green Zone, and whether there are actually encrypted messages from the factions after their loss in the recent elections to parties and political parties that want to pressure the government at the current stage by sending a special message related to the elections and demanding their return as demanded by some Armed factions in conjunction with the gathering in front of the Green Zone.

The director of the Strategic Center confirms that all the implications of these steps from the factions reached the government and knew what it wanted, especially after its attempt to target Al-Kazemi’s house last November.

Al-Taie does not rule out international intervention in the event of serious violations in Iraq (Iraqi press)

Is the international community interfering?

Regarding the possibility of the international community’s intervention in Iraq within the scenarios presented for the post-non-withdrawal phase and the continued targeting of economic and investment interests with foreign missions, Professor of Public International Law at the University of Mosul, Dr. Suhaib Al-Ta’i, does not rule out international intervention in the event of serious violations against human rights in Iraq In addition to a threat to international peace and security.

He is based on this – while speaking to Al-Jazeera Net – on the principle of “responsibility to protect” adopted by the United Nations, according to which the international community is given the right to protect the individual regardless of his nationality or the country in which he lives.

The large number of regional interventions in the affairs of Iraq, with the affiliation of some parties to European or Eastern countries; Al-Tai increases the expectation of an internal conflict in Iraq after the withdrawal, and this in turn will create turmoil that the international community may be forced to interfere in Iraq’s affairs according to international contexts.

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