Negotiations for security guarantees.. zeroing in on the crisis between Moscow and NATO, or deporting it?

Moscow- The willingness of the United States to negotiate security guarantees with Russia does not seem sufficient, from the latter’s point of view, to achieve a rapid and effective breakthrough in the wall of crisis between the two parties.

Russia fears that the process of discussing its proposals will turn into long marathon negotiations, and even fears that Washington will impose surprising preemptive conditions at the last minute before the start of the dialogue.

This apprehension was evident in the statement of Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who stressed that his country would not tolerate any preconditions from the United States in return for formalizing the security guarantees proposed by the Russian side.

According to Ryabkov, Moscow will not be willing to accept any preconditions for the US administration, including obligating Russia to “implement an agenda” on its territory to satisfy Washington and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries.

Moreover, Moscow insists on receiving, and quickly formalizing, written guarantees from the alliance, ensuring that NATO will not expand to the east, i.e. returning allied forces to the 1997 borders.

The Russian formula for the required guarantees includes the commitment of NATO member states to refrain from the expansion of the alliance, including the accession of Ukraine, or other countries to it, as well as not to deploy weapons systems in Ukraine and other neighboring countries of the Russian Federation.

Earlier, Moscow offered Washington and NATO treaties in which the two parties would give guarantees for security in Europe, including not to deploy medium and short-range missiles at ranges that could reach each of them.

Non-expansion of NATO

In any case, the main point of these agreements – for Moscow – is to ensure that the former Soviet republics do not join NATO, and to prohibit the development of bilateral military cooperation between Western countries and the post-Soviet republics, and the talk is primarily about Ukraine and Georgia.

If US and NATO missile systems appear in Ukraine – for example – their flight time to Moscow will be reduced to 7-10 minutes, and if hypersonic missiles are installed, this means that their flight will take 5 minutes.

Political analyst Sergei Bersanov believes that if Russian concerns are ignored if negotiations begin, as scheduled next January, Moscow will have no choice but to respond with the means at its disposal.

He added – in an interview with Al Jazeera Net – that the option of resorting to force by both parties is unlikely, given the conflict of the military option with their interests, unless the talk is about a “show of force”, which recent experiences have proven that it has no real effects, other than maintaining a state of affairs. tension, and freeze political settlements.

Ontikov: The more Western pressure on Russia becomes, the more realistic the “informal” alliance between Moscow and Beijing will be (Getty Images)

alliance with china

In parallel, the political analyst considers that the ball is now in the court of the US administration, and the question is whether the West will sign this document, at least at this stage of the crisis’s development, or will it go towards continuing the confrontation?

But he said that the greater Western pressure on Russia, the more realistic the “informal” alliance between Moscow and Beijing became.

On the other hand, political writer Andrei Ontikov tends to believe that the West will not easily and quickly retreat from plans to change the military-political situation in Europe in its favour.

Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, the writer suggested that the West would have counter-demands that could include – for example – joints in Russia’s domestic policy.


The writer ruled out that Moscow had begun to deal with the West in the tone of “ultimate ultimatums”, noting that the situation had become so dangerous that it required quick and decisive steps, while insisting that talks with the European side be direct and on the basis of understanding legitimate interests.

And he considered that the task of the Russian negotiating team in the talks scheduled for next month will be to make the “Atlantic” understand that the right of any country to join the alliance was followed by an explicit statement in the founding charter of the alliance, that when making such a choice, countries must take into account the security interests of other countries , which means, frankly and without reservation, consideration of Russian interests.

Moscow had presented a list of security guarantees it seeks to ease tensions in Europe and defuse the crisis over Ukraine, which the West considered controversial and excluded some of these guarantees.

The Russian Foreign Ministry published its draft treaty, consisting of 8 articles, in conjunction with the stationing of forces near the border with Ukraine. At the time, it threatened that ignoring its interests would lead to a “military response” similar to the Cuban missile crisis in 1962.

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