Le Figaro: Iran, Ukraine and Taiwan… Files that threaten global stability in 2022
The French newspaper Le Figaro said that several major geopolitical crises threaten the international balance and will put the West in great embarrassment, such as Iran’s possession of atomic weapons and a Russian attack on Ukraine, or a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
The newspaper pointed out that the crises that stalk the world and the French presidency of the European Union in 2022, some of them have become a reality, the first of which is the Iranian nuclear file that threatens the Middle East with a real revolution, especially after the election of a hard-line conservative Iranian president in June 2021, and Tehran’s withdrawal from negotiations and the escalation of violations of the “Action Plan.” The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” the agreement reached with the international community in July 2015 to slow Iran’s march toward an atomic bomb.
The newspaper mentioned – in a report Written by Isabelle Lasser – with what she considered Iranian violations, such as pushing uranium enrichment to levels prohibited by the international community, amounting to 20 and 60%, and building new centrifuges and producing 90% enriched uranium, as a last step in the enrichment program, in addition to starting the production of uranium metal .
“The Iranians have made irreversible progress in enrichment and knowledge,” said a diplomat familiar with the file, especially that closing the border to International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors left the international community “blind” about part of the program.
Most experts agree that Iran will have enough fissile material within weeks to be able to build a nuclear weapon when its leaders decide to do so. It has come.”
An Israeli source says, “We have a feeling in Israel that Europe and the United States want an agreement at any price, to the point that they will allow the Iranians to prolong the talks indefinitely,” but some expect the negotiations to collapse, and thus new sanctions on Iran, and the activation of the “Snapback” mechanism. (Snap back), which provides for returning the issue to the UN Security Council, followed by a military intervention initiated by Israel, and no one knows whether the United States and Europe will follow it unless Iran emerges as a nuclear power, which raises a new proliferation crisis in the region and pushes the Sunni powers – especially Saudi Arabia And Turkey – to arm itself with a nuclear bomb.
The second crisis that threatens Europe comes with Russia approaching 2022 after mounting pressure with the mobilization of more than 100,000 soldiers near Ukraine and indirectly threatening Kiev with more military intervention, especially since the military regime that threatens it can be activated at any moment if the scheduled talks go ahead. To be held in early January between Moscow and Washington about NATO and Russia’s “security” badly.
The writer cautioned that these two crises hide behind them a very important challenge related to the credibility of the West and its will to defend its allies, in addition to strengthening or undermining international rules that prevent any country from changing the borders of another country by force.
However, the recent Russian review of Ukraine’s borders gave Vladimir Putin the pretext to impose negotiations on the “extension” of NATO to the east, and he presented his “demands” to the Americans, which means that the implicit price for his abandoning the invasion of Ukraine is to prevent the membership of any country in the region in NATO and prevent any military maneuvers In the countries of the former Soviet Union, in addition to the withdrawal of NATO forces from Central and Eastern Europe as well as the Baltic states.
sign of weakness
The Kremlin chief believes that the opportunity was not as favorable as it is today to impose his strategic demands on the “free world”, after US President Joe Biden, after his predecessors Donald Trump and Barack Obama, confirmed his intention to withdraw from Europe and the Middle East, to concentrate all US forces in the Indian and Pacific oceans to combat influence. Chinese there.
Moscow – according to the author – has read the withdrawal from Iraq and then the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan as a sign of American weakness, just like giving the White House the green light to pursue the gas pipeline in the Nord Stream 2 project, which some considered as “surrendering.” “.
The newspaper concluded that testing American credibility will be one of the major challenges for 2022, whether it comes to Russia or the Iranian nuclear crisis, or the third powder keg that threatens to erupt between China and Taiwan in the coming months, especially since China is also closely watching the reactions or Rather, the lack of reaction on the part of the United States in the major crises in the world, and working to increase diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan.