Turkey in 2022.. Many reasons to change its foreign policy
Ankara- It seems that the files that fueled tension and differences between Turkey and several countries are the same ones that require rapprochement between them, as Ankara is heading in 2022 to normalize its relations with yesterday’s opponents, and this was noticed in the steps and statements of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his foreign minister and other officials.
It has been remarkable in recent months that Ankara has returned to the policy of zeroing problems through the strategy of reducing crises in its foreign policy, starting with Abu Dhabi, Riyadh and Cairo, passing through Washington, Yerevan and Brussels, and not ending with Athens and Tel Aviv.
UAE and Egypt
From accusing the UAE of being involved in planning the failed coup against Erdogan, to receiving the Crown Prince of “Abu Dhabi” Mohammed bin Zayed, in Ankara in late 2021, and supporting the Turkish economy with a basket of $15 billion.
The Turkish and Emirati press stated that the Bin Zayed and Erdogan summit was a prelude to a broader partnership, and would even overcome the difficulties in front of full Turkish-Egyptian normalization, especially since officials in Egypt will visit Abu Dhabi next February.
On May 5 and 6, 2021, exploratory talks began between Cairo and Ankara at the level of the two deputy foreign ministers in Cairo, followed by a second round to confirm the continuation of contacts and evaluate the steps last September.
Reports stated that the Egyptian-Turkish talks did not stop, indicating their development, and the contentious issues in Libya and the eastern Mediterranean are currently being resolved, and it is expected that 2022 will witness a shift in Turkish relations with Egypt through the return of ambassadors.
Saudi Arabia .. a careful return
Turkish presidential spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, said that positive developments may occur soon in his country’s relations with Saudi Arabia. Relations with Saudi Arabia collapsed after Saudi agents killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country’s consulate in Istanbul in October 2018. Months ago, a phone call took place between the Turkish president and the Saudi king, and Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu visited Riyadh.
Observers believe that Saudi Arabia wants to open a new page with Turkey, but it is waiting according to the general scene before this step, but the core common interests are enough to improve relations between the two countries during 2022.
Armenia..Great opportunities for normalization
Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu announced that the next stage will witness an exchange of appointment of special representatives of Turkey in Armenia; Noting that Turkish and Armenian airlines will start operating direct flights between Yerevan and Istanbul soon.
The researcher in Turkey’s foreign policy and Caucasus affairs, Basil Haj Jassim, says that the chances of implementing normalization are great, because the surrounding conditions have become more favorable after Azerbaijan, Turkey’s ally, regained its lands, as “Baku” refused to normalize Ankara with Yerevan before restoring the Karabakh region.
Although turning the page of the past full of accusations will not be easy, the mere appointment of the two countries as special envoys for the task of normalization during 2022, means that things are moving in a positive direction, which may be fast this time due to mutual desire, according to Jassim.
The United States..a commercial progress
The stagnation of Turkish-American relations prevailed in 2021, while the tension related to Turkey’s contract to purchase the S-400 air defense system continued with the assumption of US President Joe Biden, and the scene was dominated by a negative atmosphere due to the negative attitude of Congress towards Turkey, using the expression “The Armenian Genocide”.
During his bilateral meetings with Biden in the second half of 2021, Erdogan was able to explain Turkey’s views on the points of contention between the two sides, but the United States has not yet taken the concrete steps that Turkey is waiting for in this regard.
During their meeting on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in late 2021, Erdogan and Biden decided to form a joint mechanism to strengthen and develop Turkish-American relations.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, SITA researcher Hazal Duran expected that this mechanism would contribute to increasing the volume of trade between the two countries and continuing relations in a smoother picture during the new year, despite the lack of tangible progress on issues such as the issue of the S-400 missiles, Syria and Hezbollah. Kurdish workers.
Israel .. an indication of the return of ambassadors
Relations between Turkey and Israel deteriorated, after their normalization in 2016, for reasons related to the policies of the occupation and the Palestinian cause, specifically the attack on the Palestinians participating in the return marches on the Gaza Strip borders in 2018.
After his meeting with the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, the Turkish President said that similar strong steps will be taken by his country with both Egypt and Israel, and announced his readiness to nominate ambassadors according to a specific timetable when this decision is taken.
Researcher Saeed Al-Hajj says that a preliminary decision has been taken to improve relations on both sides, and it has become a matter of timing, output and internal marketing in the first place, then maximizing gains and minimizing losses.
Al-Hajj adds to Al-Jazeera Net, perhaps the recent developments represented by Turkey releasing two Israelis arrested on charges of espionage and the communications that took place between Erdogan and the president and prime minister of the occupying country, and the language used during them, are indications of the imminence of taking the step of returning the ambassadors, as there are expectations in Ankara that this will happen by mid 2022.
The European Union.. Tense issues
Turkey’s relations with the European Union were negative, and the European countries’ focus on the issue of “Osman Kavala” imprisoned in Turkey on the background of several issues, sparked a serious crisis between the two sides. The embassies of the United States, Canada, New Zealand, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland issued a joint statement in Last October 18, Turkey demanded an end to Kavala’s detention.
Turkish researcher Duran believes that the refugee issue will remain among the important files on Turkey’s agenda in 2022, especially in its bilateral relations with the European Union.
With the Turkish parliament’s approval of a memorandum allowing Turkish forces to remain in Syria for two years, Turkey confirmed that it will continue its important role in Syria in the coming years as well.
Despite the continuing tension with Greece on the issue of the eastern Mediterranean, important steps have been taken for dialogue, and the 61st round of exploratory talks between Turkey and Greece on the situation in the Aegean Sea resumed, as Turkey proposed holding an “Eastern Mediterranean Conference” to discuss ways to resolve the differences between the two countries. countries of the region.
realistic and positive
“In light of Turkey’s realism in its foreign policy, its new rhetoric on climate change and its ratification of its Paris Agreement, it is expected that Turkish foreign policy will follow a more positive path in 2022,” says researcher Duran.
For his part, Al-Hajj mentions that the reasons that push Turkey towards normalizing and improving relations with various parties in the region and the world are common to all of them, and include the directions of the US administration and its regional policies, including its negative attitude towards Erdogan, and the regional issues that drained everyone in the region without decisive final results in favor of Turkey. one party over another.
He stresses that the effects of the Corona pandemic on the economies of the region, especially the Turkish one, with the devaluation of the lira, as well as the approaching date of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections, which are described as decisive and fateful, are pushing Ankara to calm down and political investment during the new year.