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Stratfor: 2022 reforms will put the gains of the Arab Spring in Tunisia to the test

See an analysis of the Stratfor website (Stratfor) that the expected institutional reforms in Tunisia in 2022 will increase political and economic unrest, and is likely to influence other governments in the region to slow their democratic transitions.

The American website indicated that Tunisian President Kais Saied announced on December 13 that a constitutional referendum would be held in July 2022, and that the country’s Legislative Council would remain suspended until new elections are held next December.

He commented that while these announcements lay down a roadmap for institutional reforms over the next year, they also generated uncertainty about the country’s political and economic future.

He stated that some of the major reforms will include changing the way the Tunisian parliament operates, which will lead to uncertainty about the authority of the Legislative Council in the short term, but may increase its efficiency in the long term.

Stratfor noted that the reforms could also lead to a more authoritarian Tunisian political system if they included a broad increase in presidential powers, which could lead to a popular backlash.

The institutional reforms expected in Tunisia in 2022 will increase political and economic unrest, and are likely to influence other governments in the region to slow their democratic transitions.

With Said assuming the presidency of the upcoming transitional period, he could expand his presidential authority to include more branches of government and state institutions, and this possibility increases with the continued suspension of Parliament and thus its inability to function in an official manner, and this would greatly affect political stability in Tunisia through Disruption of the carefully established balance of power between the executive and legislative branches of the country.

The site believes that next year’s political transition is likely to complicate rather than solve Tunisia’s current economic problems. In order for the Tunisian economy to grow sustainably, the government will have to introduce a mix of structural reforms to the underperforming private sector.

The global economic climate will also need to improve before Tunisia can enjoy a return in demand for its exports, as well as services such as tourism, and finally the Tunisian business community will need to show sincere support for the political path proposed by Said.

However, it is unlikely that any of these three preconditions for Tunisia’s economic growth will be met in 2022, which means that Saied has a limited time period during which he can lead the country through a political transition, while retaining popular support that depends largely on whether Was the Tunisian economy performing well or not.

Stratfor concluded his analysis that other Arab governments will closely monitor Tunisia’s reform efforts over the next year, to determine the type of realistic political change in their countries.



Reference-www.aljazeera.net

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