After closing 2021 with hot files, here are the most prominent expected events in Iraq in 2022
Political analyst Iyad Al-Anbar sees the steps to form the new government as a key to resolving all crises in Iraq or increasing their complexity during the new year, including those accumulated since 2021.
Baghdad- Iraq has turned the pages of 2021 with many exceptional events at various levels, perhaps the most prominent of which is the announcement of the results of the early parliamentary elections and the completion of the withdrawal of US combat forces from the country, to name a few.
Despite the difficulty of predicting the future of events in Iraq in 2022, analysts expect it to be a hot year with the approaching date of the first parliamentary session and the growing controversy over the agreement on the major bloc to form the new government and choose a president for it.
Politically, political analyst Dr. Iyad Al-Anbar sees the steps of agreeing to form the new government as a key to resolving all crises in Iraq or increasing their complexity during the new year, including those accumulated since 2021, and at the same time he does not rule out returning some previous scenarios, most notably that the government is not It is able to face challenges and continues to revolve in the spiral of corruption, attributing the reason to data that suggest that political forces will not resort to a new beginning.
In the event of any political change in 2022, Amber expects it to be relative, or it may be compatible with the nature of the international and regional realities that will be present in the coming years.
Amber rules out that Mustafa Al-Kazemi, Barham Salih and Muhammad Al-Halbousi will continue to retain the three presidencies, due to political differences that will not allow the same faces to be returned for their mismanagement, and the failure of the influential political forces to bet on their renewal.
As for the economic level, specialists are likely to continue implementing the “white paper” project implemented by Mustafa Al-Kazemi’s government in October 2020, to serve as a program for economic reform.
Economic expert Hammam Al-Shamaa presents two scenarios for 2022, the first of which is limited to the survival of the Al-Kazemi government and its special team that worked in 2020 and 2021, specifically Finance Minister Ali Allawi, who is the worst economically at various levels, because of what he describes as “dark statements” he made about laying off state employees, after 10 years, due to the demise of the oil era, in light of Iraq’s dependence on it, in order to finance its financial budgets, which means returning the threat scenario that it started at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, which threatens to cut salaries and the lack of funds to pay them.
Al-Shammaa expects that pressure on salaries and appointments will increase by devaluing the local currency further, and this will lead to a further deterioration in economic life, in addition to the deterioration of the agricultural reality due to water scarcity with the decline in the industrial situation, to increase the size of the negatives in 2022 with no change in the sector Electrode too.
As for the second scenario, it is represented in the advent of a new government that begins with reform steps, not by putting pressure on low standards of living for the people, but rather by putting pressure on the wealthy classes who unjustly benefit from the quotas and the security and administrative chaos, as Al-Shamaa put it to Al Jazeera Net, and the condition of the people will be better even if it succeeds in Applying 30% of it to increase the market movement and the economic situation.
In security, the expert in this regard, Aqil Al-Taei, expects that security scenarios will remain unchanged in 2022, which depend on traditional strategies with the deployment of security forces and their investment for demonstration purposes in Baghdad and the rest of the regions, in light of the absence of controls and real management and the lack of reliance on the intelligence effort in addressing many security vacuums.
What Al-Taie criticizes the most, in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, is putting some security leaders in military tasks and duties with political influences without having any sufficient qualifications, at the same time holding political rivalries and conflicts responsible for the security failures in the country, which is a good opportunity for the Islamic State to exploit and increase Operations against security sites.
Al-Taie does not hide his fear of the continuation of security breaches, but rather their increase in 2022 by a greater proportion than what happened last year, and if a consensual government is formed in which the security file will face many problems, but the matter may be reversed if a national government is formed that bears the responsibility of protecting the people at various levels, away from Take the method of rotating the security and military faces.
In response to a question about the possibility of continued attacks on American interests after Al-Kazemi announced the withdrawal of combat forces and the confinement of trainers and advisors from them in the two bases of Ain al-Assad in the Anbar governorate in the west of the country and Harir in Iraqi Kurdistan, Al-Taie tends to the possibility of a decline in the attacks of the Shiite factions, but he does not rule out the presence of hands working to Spread chaos and turn the cards by carrying out attacks on the American forces to increase the presence of the warring parties in the arena.
On the cultural side, in 2021, Iraq witnessed many cultural events and festivals, whether at the level of arts or poetry, by hosting many local and Arab artistic faces and holding various artistic and cultural events attended by prominent Arab stars such as Egyptian star Ahmed Abdel Aziz, singer Ali Al-Hajjar and Syrian actor Ayman Zidan. As well as organizing the Babel International Festival again with the participation of prominent singers, led by Hani Shaker, and the Baghdad International Book Fair.
The Iraqi Ministry of Culture is keen that the current year be similar or superior to last year in the establishment and organization of cultural and artistic events at various levels, according to its deputy, Imad Jassem, but he links this to the approval of some data in this year’s budget that his ministry demands by giving it an opportunity to renew the bid With sufficient financial allocations and commensurate with the size of the ambition.
The ministry has prepared an integrated curriculum for the current year to open up to international organizations, and by addressing it to the Iraqi communities residing in the diaspora with its quest to hold a conference for expatriate playwrights to be a valuable opportunity for them to present their major and pioneering theatrical works, in addition to preparing plans to welcome many intellectuals to come to their country from abroad and celebrate them.
Among the most prominent events that the Ministry is keen to hold in 2022, which it organized last year, and to repeat it in a dress worthy of Iraqi culture and arts: conferences related to social and psychological fields, such as the conference of the late sociologist Ali Al-Wardi for Social Sciences, according to Jassim’s assertion to Al-Jazeera Net, which indicated that there are efforts to To organize two film and theater festivals with many periodic festivals.