In video and infographics.. Here are 4 hypothetical scenarios for forming the next Iraqi government
The political system in place does not give any coalition the ability to form the Iraqi government without obtaining half plus one of the 329 seats in parliament.
Video duration 01 minutes 13 seconds
Baghdad- Since the announcement of the results of the Iraqi elections and their ratification by the Federal Supreme Court, the political scene in Iraq continues to revolve around shifting sands and a closed circle with regard to the form of alliances that guarantee the passage of the new government formation according to the ratio of half plus one (165 deputies in the Iraqi parliament), as the form has not been resolved. Political understandings and alliances formed for the next government so far.
The leader of the Sadrist bloc, Muqtada al-Sadr, confirms his quest to form a majority national government, but he did not specify the affiliation and identity of the next prime minister, while the Shiite coordination framework – which includes the State of Law coalition led by Nuri al-Maliki, the Fatah alliance led by Hadi al-Amiri, and the bloc of former Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, insists. And the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, the Ataa Movement and the Virtue Party – to form a consensus government that guarantees the participation of all Iraqi components.
According to the political system in place, the Sadrist bloc that wins the largest number of seats cannot form a government automatically, which means that “the results of the elections do not mean that there is a winner or a loser.”
The Iraqi regime does not give any coalition the ability to form a government without obtaining half plus one of the number of seats in a parliament consisting of 329 seats, that is, it will need 165 members, which means the impossibility of passing the government without a coalition of Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish blocs, and its integration into an alliance that guarantees its passage within Iraqi Parliament.
Al-Jazeera Net interviewed a number of political analysts and researchers, including the head of the Center for Political Thinking Ihsan Al-Shammari, writer and journalist Saman Noah, researcher Bassam Al-Qazwini, and researcher Munqith Dagher, who agreed that there are 4 scenarios that determine the path of forming the new Iraqi government, which are:
The government of the national majority, which will include the Sadrist bloc (73 seats), the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Massoud Barzani (31 seats), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan led by Bafel Talabani (18 seats), as well as the Alliance of Progress (Sunni) led by former Parliament Speaker Muhammad al-Halbousi (37 seats), The Azm (Sunni) coalition led by Khamis al-Khanjar (14 seats) may join them, hoping to join some Shiite forces that may have to withdraw from the coordination framework, such as the Badr bloc led by al-Amiri, the Victory Coalition headed by Haider al-Abadi, and the National Contract Alliance headed by Faleh al-Fayyad.
The consensual government that the Shiite coordination framework seeks to form alongside the two Kurdish Democratic and Patriotic Union parties, in addition to some independents and the Azm and Progress alliance, may impose on the coordination framework to be ready to make concessions to all Sunni and Kurdish alliances in exchange for joining it and leaving al-Sadr alone in the opposition.
The large majority government, which includes 200 parliamentary seats, includes the Sadrist bloc, some forces of the coordination framework, the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, in addition to the Progress bloc and some independents.
This form of government in which the opposition will take a defiant form if the State of Law coalition headed by Nuri al-Maliki goes towards the opposition, meaning that there are two fronts, one of them is traditional and represented by al-Maliki, and the other includes new blocs that include the “extension” emanating from the protests (9 seats) and the New Generation Party founded by the opposition The Kurdish Shaswar Abdul Wahed (9 seats) and some independents, and this opposition does not agree with each other, which may lead to confusion of the regulatory and legislative performance.
The government of the first winners or what is known as the Alliance of the Mighty, which includes the Sadrist bloc as the biggest winner Shiite (73 seats), the coalition that advances the biggest winner, the Sunni (37 seats) and the Kurdistan Democratic Party, the biggest Kurdish winner (31 seats). Ministers and Parliament.
The closest form to verification
Although the Kurdish and Sunni forces demand the Shiite parties to agree internally, and then negotiate in a unified way, they are, by experience, ready in the end to join either the Sadrist bloc or the coordination framework, if either of them succeeds in forming the largest bloc.
Ihsan Al-Shammari and Saman Noah agree in their interview with Al-Jazeera Net that the scenario closest to leading the next stage is the broad majority team – which includes more than half of the Shiites with 3 quarters of the Kurds and the majority of Sunnis – and it is a majority that is closer to consensus, but it remains a step forward to form a more effective parliament. compared to previous governments.
As for Munqith Dagher and Bassam al-Qazwini, they believe that the lack of time and al-Sadr’s insistence on the majority may make the scenario closest to being achieved is that the forces of the coordination framework are divided between participants, opponents, and savers to achieve a majority for al-Sadr.
This scenario will take place with the participation of Al-Amiri in forming the government and opposing Al-Maliki in parliamentary committees or the position of Deputy Speaker of Parliament, and Al-Hakim and Al-Abadi saving their political activities for the upcoming elections.