Quiet celebrations and talk of options other than war.. Does Ukraine pave the way for a truce with Russia?

Analysts believe that Ukraine has begun preparing for a calm, against the backdrop of the possibility that the United States and NATO will back down from supporting Kiev after the upcoming talks with Moscow, and respond to the Russian security demands not to include neighboring Ukraine in NATO membership.

Kiev- Contrasting with the global uproar surrounding the issue of military build-up and the risks of a possible Russian “invasion”, the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov concluded the end of 2021 with a remarkable statement, in which he played down the risks of the invasion, and called for a quiet celebration of Christmas and New Year’s Day.

In his statement, Danilov did not rule out that the Kremlin would take “another decision” on the invasion of Ukraine, but considered that “the main issue for Russia – at the moment – is the internal destabilization of the country.”

The participation of President Zelensky (second from the right) in a satirical artistic evening on New Year’s Day was criticized in the atmosphere of the war in Ukraine (communication sites)

The president celebrates with his “technical team”

And Danilov’s statement was not the only controversial one. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with a number of senior officials in the presidential office, participated in a satirical New Year’s Eve evening for the “Kvartal 95” group, which he owned and led when he was a comedian before he became president in 2019. .

Zelensky’s presence was met with widespread criticism on social media, and his critics described his participation as “relaxation and indifference”, at a time when the world is preoccupied with the dangers facing Ukraine, and coincides with the discussions of a Russian-US summit to de-escalate the situation.

Different positions for foreign and defense

Not far from the headquarters of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council and the Ukrainian Presidential Office, different positions emerge in the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense, which seem more serious in dealing with the “imminent dangers” and preparing for them.

Among these is the Foreign Ministry’s efforts to unite the Western countries around the idea of ​​the dangers that the Kremlin’s intentions and policies pose to Ukraine, the region, and the world.

Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov is also active in efforts to obtain qualitative and lethal weapons from “Western partners”, led by the United States.

Pictures published by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army on Facebook - showing soldiers and vehicles stationed on the border with Russia (1)A picture published by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army shows soldiers and vehicles stationed on the border with Russia (communication sites)

What is Ukraine’s role in its crisis?

As expected, the Russian Foreign Ministry was quick to consider Danilov’s statements as evidence of “artificial intimidation” practiced by the West regarding the Ukraine crisis, which leads to the question of the “contradiction” in the statements and positions of its officials, so to speak, and even about the reality of the role that Ukraine plays in its crisis. current.

From the point of view of Ihor Hogva, editor-in-chief of the opposition website “Strana” (al-Balad), which was closed down by the Ukrainian authorities a few months ago, the West has created the current escalation of Russia’s provocation in Ukraine, which has an important historical and strategic position for Moscow, “while the current Ukrainian authorities are reacting to events It also likes the West, or does not interact at all, because it is out of the game in the first place,” he said.

In this regard, Hogva considered that the statements of the Secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Oleksiy Danilov were “objective”, and this was “strange” in them, noting that the Council had repeatedly underestimated the size of the Russian crowds, while their number in the media and statements of Western officials reached about 175 thousand, which calls into question its reality, and the objectives of this “amplification” of the crisis, according to his description.

Arena of conflict or “spearhead”?

But others do not see any contradiction that raises controversy, and cling to the idea that Ukraine is not a Russian-Western battlefield, but rather a “spearhead” against the “Russian world”.

Political analyst Yulia Tishchenko says that Danilov’s comments did not indicate a lack of military build-up, but rather played down the possibility of a large-scale invasion.

And she continued, “This is also the nature of Zelensky, who does not miss the biggest party organized by his comedy group (Kvartal 95) every year. Talking about the rationale of this behavior at this time is another question that is open to a lot of controversy.”

Tishchenko told Al Jazeera Net, “Let’s be realistic, the West did not fight Russia, and its sanctions on Moscow did not achieve any significant result, and over the past 8 years, the West has not supported Ukraine enough to defeat Russia, if it actually considers it an enemy and a threat to Kiev and the Western world.”

For the analyst, Ukraine is a spearhead among the countries that refuse to return to the Russian world, with its restrictions on freedoms and the spread of corruption, and the West – until recently – played the role of spectators in the stands with only enthusiastic cheers of encouragement.

Tishchenko believes that the West feels today the danger of Russia, but its positions remain different regarding support for Ukraine, while the United States and neighboring countries stand out in the circle of those concerned with supporting Kiev because they share their fears, and see that it may be a target later after Ukraine, along with other considerations and political and strategic goals.

Pictures published by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Army on Facebook - showing soldiers and vehicles stationed on the border with Russia (3)A Russian soldier in the snow near the border with Russia, where the tone of the war began to recede due to the prospect of Russian-American negotiations (communication sites)

Does Ukraine pave the way for calm?

Referring to Danilov’s statements as well, a remarkable opinion emerges, that Ukraine has begun paving the way for a truce against the backdrop of the possibility that the United States and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will back down from Kiev’s support after the expected talks with Moscow, and respond to Russian security demands not to annex neighboring Ukraine. to NATO membership.

In this context, political analyst Oleksiy Belashko says that the war is not in Ukraine’s interest, and “the authorities inevitably want calm, but they do not pave the way for it against the background of a possible Western retreat, and they have not done so over the past years, but rather confronted the Russians and their loyalists with the available capabilities local and western aid.

He added, “Russia is an enemy of Ukraine today, and tension with it remains as long as its causes remain. As for Western countries, they may look at things according to other scales, which may not concern the Ukrainians and may contradict their aspirations.”

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