Blurry and shifting political scene… Who will the French vote for in the presidential elections after 3 months?

Paris – In light of a complex, ambiguous, ambiguous and immature epidemiological situation in the French political scene and its rapid transformations – according to observers – the French are welcoming the new year with their eyes on the most important political event that their country will live on after 3 months, with the presidential elections scheduled for April 10-24.

In this context, several issues and questions that cast a shadow over this important political event surface, we will try to delve into and answer them with a group of analysts and politicians, to learn more about the features of the French political scene in the 2022 elections.

  • What are the most prominent features of the political scene in France during the upcoming presidential elections?

According to political analyst and strategist Pierre Berthelot, the most important characteristic of the French political landscape is the uncertain future of the two important political camps. If Macron is not re-elected, his “Republic on the Move” political movement is likely to disappear, because it is a party that exists only through him like Forza Italia with Berlusconi.

Political analyst Pierre Berthelot predicted the disappearance of the republican movement forward if Macron was not re-elected (European)

He added to Al Jazeera Net, “It is also somewhat similar for the classic right, specifically the “Republicans”, because if they suffer a new defeat similar to the defeat of François Fillon in 2017, the party can split between a very right-wing trend with Eric Ciuty, who may join Eric Zemmour and another More centrists, like Michel Barnier or Xavier Bertrand, who could join Macron if he was re-elected.”

On the other hand, a political analyst specializing in French and European affairs, Ahmed Al-Sheikh pointed out that the features of the political scene and the course of the presidential battle in France have not yet matured, but what is striking about the campaigns of these elections is the emergence of the star of the far-right Eric Zemmour and his continuous play on the security fears of the French.

He continued, saying to Al-Jazeera Net, “In general, the security issue and the attitude towards immigrants occupy the largest area of ​​the concerns of the leaders of the traditional right and the extreme right at the expense of the social and economic issues that trouble most French people, and what is striking about the election campaigns and their course so far is the increasing return to French history and its symbols, which is a phenomenon It is old and new, and it is noticed by most of the candidates, although it appears more among the leaders of the French right.”

  • Who are the most prominent political families running for these elections, and what are their chances?

Berthelot emphasized that Macron and the right with Valerie Pecresse have the best chances, because they can reach the second round, in which case they have equal chances if they are face to face, and very strong if they are opposed to another, more extreme candidate, left or right.

“For a long time, Macron’s re-election seemed very likely, because his audience is stable with about 25% of the intent to vote in the first round. But the recent and big victory of Valerie Pecres during the primaries could change the situation.”

  • What are the trends of the French voter according to the latest opinion polls?

The sheikh questions the credibility of opinion polls, especially in recent years, and stresses that the French voter does not easily reveal his or her inclinations until the moment they go to the polls, but it can be said that the French voter tends more to the traditional right unless there are unexpected shocks or shifts.

While Berthelot explained that issues related to security and immigration remain at the fore, hence the rise of the candidates Zemmour and Le Pen, but also the issue of purchasing power is also very important with the general increase in prices, especially in the field of energy. So the candidate who will give the best answer on these two topics will have a good chance of winning.

  • To what extent will the tense political, social and health climate affect the elections?

The well-known communist politician and former adviser to the mayor of Paris Pierre Mensat points out that it is very difficult to answer this question, because it is about the climate of the period in which elections are held on the choice of voters, where several variables can contribute to shifting the order of their concerns and expectations in recent days.

For his part, political analyst Berthelot stated that the current political climate is characterized by an unprecedented presence and a high level of two candidates from the far-right, Eric Zemmour and Marine Le Pen, and “from here, perhaps this election campaign will be the most right-wing under the republic, not forgetting also the social climate The tense situation, with the economic uncertainty associated with the Corona and energy crises, as well as the increase in prices.”

  • Could the Corona mutants constitute a surprise that contributes to changing the date of the elections?

Politician Pierre Mensat confirms to Al Jazeera Net that “the constitution is clear on this point: the election date cannot be changed regardless of the size of the Omicron wave.”

In the same context, Al-Sheikh said, “Until this moment, the Corona pandemic cannot make a fundamental change or constitute a surprise that changes the course of the presidential elections, because the method followed by the French authorities so far has not brought with it great damage.”

  • What are the most prominent lessons learned from the recent regional elections and their results?

“The first lesson of the regional elections is the failure of the far right or populist,” Berthelot said, “but even so we cannot generalize the results of these elections, because if they are somewhat positive for the classic right, this has not really been reflected in the presidential opinion polls. Macron suffered a severe defeat in this election, and yet for voters, there is a difference between Macron’s party and Macron himself.

As for Mensat, he pointed out that in the recent local elections there is stability for traditional political forces and the actual absence of President Macron’s “Republic on the Move” party, “but it is impossible to measure these results on the presidential elections because they are individual elections par excellence,” as he put it.

French Right-wing Presidential Candidate Valerie Pecresse Gives Press Conference In ParisValerie Pecresse, candidate for the right-wing Republicans in the French presidential elections (Getty)
  • If the extreme right wins the upcoming elections, what are the consequences for democracy in France?

A former adviser to the mayor of Paris explains that the xenophobic racist far-right ranks very high in the polls, but it seems that the majority of voters will not allow a candidate from this movement to come to power.

This opinion is supported by the strategist Berthelot, who made it clear that it is inconceivable that one of the far-right candidates will win the elections, and there is still a “glass ceiling” that prevents voters from the classic right “or even the left” in the event that the far right and Macron reach the second round of voting for Zemmour or Le Pen, this election surely holds more surprises and uncertainties than could have been expected and imagined just a few months ago.

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