Alternatives are fading.. Has war become the only option in Ukraine’s crisis with Russia?
Kiev- “Dialogue with Russia is necessary,” a slogan raised by the current Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime as the only way and option to end the war in the east of the country at any cost, after the slogan “Do not trust Russia” that was chanted in Ukraine since the beginning of the crisis in 2014 until the presidential elections in 2019. .
But after the situation deteriorated and matters reached the point of threatening a comprehensive war beyond the east to the risk of targeting Kiev and overthrowing the regime in it, it seems that the chances of dialogue are fading and war emerges as an almost single option.
This fact is reinforced by the fact that direct – and indirect – contact between Ukraine and Russia has ended, even within the framework of the so-called “Normandy Quartet” for settlement, which also includes Germany and France; In addition, relations between Kiev and Berlin are very tense due to the current crisis as well.
Also, in light of Kiev obtaining quantities of “qualitative and lethal weapons”, especially from America, Russia’s strategic enemy, peaceful options have become excluded, and dialogue has become more difficult and complicated.
The collapse of what remains of hope
According to Ukrainian observers, President Zelensky was forced to change his approach after a while, and another behavior depends on the strength of readiness, with the support of Kiev’s “partners and allies” from Western countries.
The writer and political analyst Dmytro Bortnikov says, “Zelensky was convinced that there is no hope and no point in any dialogue with the Kremlin, because he repeatedly refused any direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky, and then stipulated that the meeting not address the issues of Crimea and Donbass, given that Crimea is Russian land, and that Moscow plays The mediator’s role in resolving the Donbass crisis.
He continued his speech to Al-Jazeera Net, “In other words, dialogue with Russia has become impossible, and if it takes place, it will be futile. Russia deals with clear superiority with Ukraine.”
Moscow accuses Kiev of threatening Donbass
With the onset of the current crisis, Moscow repeated its accusation that Kiev was planning military action in the Donbas region, especially after it used (once) the Turkish “Bayraktar” drone, in a scene that reminded the scenario of the liberation of the Karabakh region.
in Azerbaijan months ago.
Of course, Kiev denied the accusation; But what is certain is that its discourse changed after the incident of using the plane, turning into a defiant tone and adherence to the right to use force to liberate its lands from the pro-Russians, stressing that “Moscow is a party to the crisis, not a mediator.”
Does Ukraine have an interest in igniting a war?
The Ukrainians are aware – and the whole world is aware – of the difference in the balance of power between Russia and Ukraine, so many are quick (logically) to consider that the latter is not interested in starting any war that would put it in direct confrontation with Russia, which will not hesitate to intervene under the pretext of “protecting Russian minorities.”
But others – especially in Russia – see that Ukraine has an interest in this war, and even an urgent need – perhaps – in light of new regional and global variables and data.
Analyst at the Center for Strategic Analysis in Russia Ruslan Pukhov believes that “Ukraine does not seek war, but it may believe that it has the only way to drain Russia and incite the people against its powers, rather than the situation in its east continuing for many years, as long as Putin is in power.”
He explained to Al-Jazeera Net that “Kiev can liberate Donbass according to the scenario of the Karabakh region, but it realizes that this will not happen, because Russia will inevitably intervene against it, and then a direct and frank war will ignite, which will be more costly for Russia, and the subject of great controversy in it.”
Has Ukraine’s need met with America’s interests?
Based on the assumption that there is a “Ukrainian interest” in the war, observers link Ukraine’s “need” to liberate its territory with America’s regional and international “interests”.
Political analyst Pukhov supports this link by saying, “Ukraine has benefited from the United States’ emptiness to weaken the influence of Russia and China after the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Ukrainian arena is ideal for this purpose, and I think this explains the extent of American interest in supporting Kiev, amid the opposition of major countries in the European Union and NATO ( NATO).
This opinion may explain the complete “harmony” of attitudes between Kiev and Washington, and the Ukrainian-German “estrangement”, given that Berlin has so far refused to arm Kiev, and desires a peaceful solution that will eliminate the option of war and save the Nord Stream 2 project to transport Russian gas directly to it.
Ukraine is the biggest loser
But the Ukrainian voices are almost unanimous in rejecting all the Russian theories, hypotheses and “claims”, and affirming that Ukraine does not want war, and that it is the first and the biggest loser in it.
“This is nonsense,” says political analyst Volodymyr Shumkov. “It is Russia that is creating the war, and has amassed more than 100,000 soldiers on all the borders with Ukraine.”
He added, explaining to Al Jazeera Net, “How can Ukraine have an interest in a war that threatens today the capital, Kiev, and may seek to change its regime. The dangers of this war go beyond the borders of Ukraine and Europe, and may lead to a third world war.”
The journalist Muhammad Zawi supports this opinion, saying to Al Jazeera Net, “There is no interest in Ukraine at all. The current escalation threatens to cut off new parts of it, and because Russia realizes that it will not be on a picnic, it cannot be ruled out that it will resort to the “scorched earth” policy it prefers, as it did in Chechnya, Georgia and Syria,” he said.
raise the price of war
In a related context, analysts believe that the most that Ukraine might benefit from if the war actually occurred, is to “raise its price” and prepare well for this purpose.
The writer and political analyst Dmytro Bortnikov says: “The Ukrainians have nothing but perseverance, but Ukraine will not be able to win. With perseverance and the support of the United States, Britain and other countries, the price of the war on the Russians will rise to the maximum possible degree, whether in the number of dead soldiers, or through harsh sanctions The West looms.”
And he added, “But if Russia’s ambitions go beyond Ukraine’s borders, I think things will be much more complicated and dangerous, and very expensive for the whole world.”