After freezing his negotiations with her, will Sadr’s alliance with the Sunnis and Kurds disintegrate to form the Iraqi government?
Legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi believes that postponing the parliamentary session to elect the president of the republic or not holding it does not invalidate the status of the current candidates after the approval of the Presidency of the House of Representatives on them.
Events are accelerating in Iraq after the political blocs mixed papers by announcing their boycott of today’s parliament session dedicated to electing the president of the republic, and the Federal Supreme Court issued a decision yesterday, Sunday, to stop the procedures for the nomination of Hoshyar Zebari from the Kurdistan Democratic Party for this position against the background of looking into cases of administrative and financial corruption he is accused of. .
With the Sadrist bloc led by Muqtada al-Sadr and other Shiite forces affiliated with what is known as the coordinating framework not reaching a solution to end their differences over the formation of the largest bloc, and al-Sadr’s insistence on excluding the leader of the State of Law coalition and former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki from the next government, and the coordinating framework refusing to nominate Zebari for the presidency. The Republic, the Sadrist bloc came out with a heavy-caliber surprise by declaring a boycott of the parliament session and freezing negotiations with the political blocs on forming the next government for an indefinite period without giving any other information about the details and goals.
In the midst of this situation, many questions are raised about the consequences of these rapid developments, and whether the tripartite alliance between the Sadrist movement and the Sunni sovereignty alliance, consisting of the Advance bloc led by Muhammad al-Halbousi, the Azm bloc led by Khamis al-Khanjar, and the Kurdistan Democratic Party led by Masoud Barzani has collapsed or not, and about the implications of a boycott Parliament session.
The fate of the Triple Alliance
Political researcher close to the Sadrist movement, Manaf al-Moussawi, says that Muqtada al-Sadr’s tweet in which he called on his deputies not to vote for Zebari unless he meets the conditions does not mean the end of the alliance with Barzani, especially since it was followed up by a phone call between the two sides on Saturday, indicating that the mysterious tweet was attributed to external pressures. It is trying to dismantle the Triple Alliance by putting pressure on the Sadrist movement’s partners in an attempt to thwart the efforts to form a national majority government.
Al-Moussawi continued – in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net – that the Sadrist movement is insisting on the majority government, and that it is continuing with it, indicating that when he is unable to form it due to pressure, he may resort to the opposition, which means that he will preserve what he pledged from a political majority government.
Regarding the convening of the parliament session today, Monday, and the boycott of the current, he revealed that many blocs announced their boycott, which means that the quorum is not complete and the session has not been held legally, explaining that all possibilities exist regarding the election of the President of the Republic, especially since everyone is waiting for the Federal Court to rule on the matter. Temporary mandate in the nomination of Zebari for the post.
This is consistent with what was indicated by a political analyst close to the Kurdistan Democratic Party, Imad Baglan, who indicated that the alliance with the Sadrist movement is still ongoing, and that the parliament session will witness a boycott of many blocs, namely the Sadrist Movement and the Kurdistan Democratic and Sovereignty Alliance.
Baglan explained – in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net – that the Sadrist movement surprised the opposing blocs with this decision, considering that this step is a political maneuver after the amount of pressure that the movement was subjected to, indicating that the other blocs do not have the number of deputies needed to hold the session.
On the other hand, a political researcher close to the coordination framework, Haider Al-Barzanji, believes that the parliament session will be held on time without achieving a quorum, which will disrupt the constitutional benefits, and in a way that makes the parties that pledged to boycott bear full responsibility.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Barzanji described the current political equation as “zero”, explaining that the Federal Court issued its decision two days ago that the parliament session must be held to choose the President of the Republic in the presence of two-thirds of parliament members (220 deputies) that brought the understandings back to square one, with the tripartite alliance not having this number. The number of deputies has reached nearly 170 seats, and the court’s decision will enable the political minority, when it collects the votes of the blocking third (only 110 deputies out of the total number of deputies in Parliament of 329), to disrupt the election of the president through deliberate mass absence.
The head of the Center for Political Thinking, Ihsan Al-Shammari, believes that the current political situation depends on the coming hours and what will happen in them, pointing out that the Sadrist movement and its allies are working to test the pulse of the other side represented by the coordinating framework.
And he indicated in his speech to Al-Jazeera Net that Al-Sadr’s tweet boycotting the parliament session is not considered a coup against his alliance with the Kurdistan Democratic Party, explaining that the goal of this is due to the attempt to restore dialogue between the Kurdistan Democratic Party and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, and that this boycott coincided with the decision of the Federal Court to stop the candidacy of Hoshyar Zebari for the post. Presidency.
In this direction, the legal expert Ali Al-Tamimi believes that the postponement of the parliamentary session to elect the President of the Republic, or the failure to convene it, does not invalidate the status of the current candidates after they were approved by the Presidency of the House of Representatives.
Speaking to Al-Jazeera Net, Al-Tamimi revealed that there is no constitutional or legal text that confirms the invalidation of the nominated names and the opening of the door again for candidacy, noting that the Iraqi legislator did not expect things to reach the level they are of a threat not to hold the session due to political differences, Thus, from a legal point of view, the matter was made wide open without specifying the fate beyond this legal period to choose the president.
Returning to Al-Shammari, as he confirms that after the decision to stop the procedures for Zebari’s candidacy for the presidency, his chances of holding the position have greatly weakened, and all the allied, opposing and independent political blocs are embarrassed by his choice as President of the Republic, expecting Parliament to renew the mandate of the outgoing President of the Republic, Barham Salih.
According to the constitution, a president must be elected within 30 days of the first session of Parliament, which was held on the ninth of last January, during which Al-Halbousi was elected Speaker of Parliament, that is, no later than the end of the eighth of February. constitutional vacuum.